CIA analyst on al Qaeda

Follow-up on my Nov. 3 entry, The Post-Election Hangover, below:

What does Michael Scheuer, the former head of the CIA's Osama bin Laden unit, have to say about how al Qaeda metastasized into a global Islamic insurgency?

"'Evolving Nature of Al Qaeda Is Misunderstood, Critic Says," New York Times, Nov. 8, 2004
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/08/politics/08intel.html

Scheuer was also interviewed on CBS's "60 Minutes" for the November 14 broadcast.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/12/60minutes/main655407.shtml

A letter by Scheuer to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence will be published in the December issue of Atlantic Monthly.

And his book, Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror, is available at:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1574888498/102-7684585-7808968?v=glance

On "60 Minutes," Scheuer criticized the leadership of Richard Clarke, former Bush administration counter-terrorism advisor, and that of former Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet. In Clarke's own "60 Minutes" interview in March, however, he also slammed the Bush administration's conduct of its "war on terrorism":
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/03/19/60minutes/main607356.shtml

Nation-building at home

I went to Miami to cover the elections for Inter Press Service in hopes of grabbing a front-row seat on Act 2 of the Florida Follies. Once the campaigns wound down and the voting began, though, the show ended in a whimper of anti-climax.

Yet Florida will go on evolving: just as the limestone of the peninsula rose up out of the sea only a few thousand years ago, so the electoral landmass of the state continues to swell and shift as retirees pour in from the North and immigrants from the South. The southernmost outpost of Social Security and the northernmost metropolis of Bolívar's America Grande keeps reinventing itself. We don't have to go to Iraq or Afghanistan to witness nation-building: it's happening right there in the Sunshine State.

Despite the nearly audible sigh of relief when Floridians realized they would not have to endure four more years of taunts and second-guessing, the electoral machinery there, as in much of the country, revealed some worn gears and frayed cables. The most significant shortcomings were less the technical problems than the overarching structural issues, exposed in 2000, that came into clearer focus this time through the eyes of international observers. While talking with voters, officials and monitors in the polling places, meta-questions about elections and democracy crackled over the scene like heat lightning over the Everglades.

Why do we still choose our president in the Electoral College, which violates the principle of one person, one vote, and which solved the problems of two centuries ago?

Why do we allow partisan officials such as political appointees to run elections, rather than insisting on independent, non-partisan electoral authorities insulated from political pressures, as do nearly all democratic countries?

Why do we allow a few states to haphazardly deny the vote to some former felons who have paid their debt and who pose no hazard to society in the voting booth?

Why do we not mandate high electoral standards nationally, so that a few localities cannot exclude and intimidate some voters with outmoded rules and practices.

Why do we not fund voting everywhere sufficiently so that people in poorer jurisdictions do not have to stand on line for hours just to vote?

As Óscar González, former president of the Mexican Academy of Human Rights, observed in a Mexican paper, the United States finds itself with a series of problems accumulated over 200 years of democracy, during which its electoral processes have functioned under the presupposition of fundamental honesty and good faith because they have never been subjected to critical self-examination.

Of course, these issues are not restricted to Florida; they demand a national conversation. Before the vote, ex-President and seasoned electoral observer Jimmy Carter raised a few of these points in an op-ed in the Washington Post:
Still Seeking a Fair Florida Vote, Sept. 27, 2004, http://www.cartercenter.org/viewdoc.asp?docID=1832&submenu=news
The New York Times touched on many in a post-election editorial:
New Standards for Elections, Nov. 7, 2005,
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/07/opinion/07sun1.html?oref=login&n=Top%2fOpinion%2fEditorials%20and%20Op%2dEd%2fEditorials
International observation missions have voiced them in their reports:
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe,
http://www.osce.org/documents/odihr/2004/11/3779_en.pdf?PHPSESSID=ddd697c5fc8d5651f3ddee2fb985a4bb
Fair Election 2004, http://www.fairelection.us
Now is the moment to start resolving them, before they get swept away once again by the next partisan hurricane.

We have a very strong electoral system in many respects, and we have advised many other countries on how to build their own. Given our model status, it's a healthy exercise to cast as critical an eye on our own forms of decision-making as we do on others'.

In the next few months, for example, we'll be looking on as Iraq's embryonic political institutions undergo a stress test. In our elections, politicized Christian fundamentalists played a pivotal role, and now hope to write their version of Biblical truths into the law. In January, we'll be watching elections in Iraq in which politicized Sunni and Shi'ite fundamentalists may determine the outcome and, in the aftermath, try to impose Islamic law. Those here who anticipate an apocalyptic Rapture may encounter, if not recognize, kindred spirits there who would probably be only too happy to help usher in the Last Days. Unfortunately, the irony will be lost on all of them.

All of this underlines the caveat that elections are necessary but not sufficient for democracy. They need to be embedded in a culture of civil and human rights that protects minorities from majorities, religious and otherwise, and preserves basic freedoms, not least that of religion.

Democracy is always a work in progress. Case in point:

-------------------------------------------------------
Karzai's tribe says vote for him or home will be burned
September 25, 2004
The Washington Times
www.washingtontimes.com

Khost, Afghanistan (Agence France-Presse) -- One of the largest Pashtun tribes in southeast Afghanistan threatened two days ago to torch the homes of voters who fail to cast ballots for incumbent Hamid Karzai in next month's presidential vote.

"All Terezay tribespeople should vote for Hamid Karzai ... if any Terezay people vote for other candidates, the tribe will burn their houses," the tribe warned in a radio broadcast in the border province of Khost.

A tape of the broadcast obtained by Agence France-Presse urged both male and female members of the tribe to cast ballots in the election and to support Mr. Karzai, a fellow Pashtun.

"All Terezay tribespeople, including males and females, have to vote for Hamid Karzai because he is the only suitable person for the presidential post," it said.

The Terezays number between 120,000 and 150,000 and are scattered in the mountains of southern and eastern Afghanistan. Pashtuns make up the largest of Afghanistan's ethnic groups.
Mr. Karzai, the favorite to win the Oct. 9 election, must win support from the same communities the Taliban militants come from.

The English-speaking transitional leader faces 17 rival candidates, among them former Education Minister Yunus Qanooni, an ethnic Tajik who gets wide support in the north.

Taliban-led insurgents, from the regime that was ousted in the 2001 U.S.-led military after sheltering al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, have threatened to disrupt voting and attack all 18 candidates.
-------------------------------------------------------

Chuckle if you will, but you could find similar, if less earnest, forms of pressure not long ago in Mayor Daley's Chicago and in parts of my home state of New Jersey. As the saying went among the tribes of Cook County and Hoboken, "Vote early and vote often."

We end this entry with a partisan joke told by Garrison Keillor on his radio show, A Prairie Home Companion:

What's the difference between Vietnam and Iraq?
George W. Bush had an exit strategy for Vietnam.

Interview with Chilean political analyst

Today Inter Press Service published another story of mine, based on an interview with Manuel Antonio Garreton, the director of the Instituto de Asuntos Publicos (Institute of Public Affairs), University of Chile, Santiago. He's here as an observer of the elections in South Florida with Fair Elections 2004, an international delegation organized by Global Exchange, the San Francisco non-governmental organization.

In it, Dr. Garreton discussed not just his evaluation of the 2004 elections here, but also how he sees the institutional and cultural framework of our democracy in light of his experience in Latin America and the rest of the world.

Spirited Vote, Imperfect Democracy - Observer
http://www.ipsnews.net/new_nota.asp?idnews=26163

Jewel of a Haitian Restaurant

I didn't plan to do any restaurant reviews, but I had dinner with some observers at a Haitian restaurant in Miami Beach that I liked so much, I went back a few nights later.

It's called Tap-Tap, the Haitian name for the brightly painted mini-buses and trucks that ordinary Haitians use to get around in Port-au-Prince. That's "tap-tap" because you tap on the side of the vehicle to let the rider know you want to get on or off, or at least that's what someone explained to me.

Tap-Tap Haitian Restaurant is brightly painted too: all the walls and furniture are covered with beautiful Haitian art in bright colors, there are sculptures all around, even the swinging doors to the kitchen are decorated with red hearts and white birds. Some of the art seemed to be symbols from Haitian vodou, the West African spiritual practices the Haitians brought over with them and preserved through years of slavery.

There was music, too, a jam session with a female singer who did lovely jazzy, compas-sounding things. Well-known Haitian musicians such as Manno Charlemagne are on the schedule there regularly.

The maitresse d'hotel is willowy, gracious, et tres sympathique, and the food was delicious. You can have goat or conch if you're feeling adventurous, or fall back on very tasty salads and chicken. Tap-Tap is a good bet if you're hungry and anywhere near South Beach.

But what I liked most about the place was that it had the feel of a community center, and lots of people seemed to know each other. The restauruant has been open for ten years now, the hostess said (which is a long time in the restaurant biz), so they must be doing a lot of things right.

I picked up a leaflet that said the restaurant had launched a benefit drive to help Haitian victims of the recent floods there. Two thousand four hundred Haitians died and 1,000 are still missing in the floods from Tropical Storm Jeanne in Seprtember. About 200,000 are still homeless, and the poverty there was already so terrible that the country has very few resources to help them.

You can send a tax-deductible donation to help them to Crowing Rooster Arts, c/o Tap Tap Restaurant, 819 5th Street, Miami Beach, FL 33139. Please note "Disaster Relief" on the bottom of the check. For more information contact taptap@bellsouth.net or Peter Stearn at 305-672-2898.

Here's a poem by a Haitian poet that someone had made into a leaflet I came across there:

Trip to the Moon

I'm going to take a trip to the moon
I've had it with life down here
Everything's already been said
I'm on my way to the moon
On the moon there's neither bad nor good
Neither stupid nor wise
No people from cities or from the hills
All men are men on the moon
There they speak just one language
I'm finished with life down here
Civilization has spent my fuel
Also broken my soul
Everywhere I turn to look
Life turns in on itself
Civilzation has finished this race
So I'm going to live on the moon
It stopped being civil ages ago
I'm taking a trip to the moon
They tell me there's no king on the moon
No section chief
Or country judge
They tell me there's no overseer
And, no, not even a pope
I've got to go to the moon
Great, I tell, you, it's got to be great
The night is clearer than day
No time, no time for sleep at all
No time for work or play
At night I'll watch the earth's clear glow
Clearer than the sun
The stars are as close as fireflies on trees
And on the moon there is no heat
No cold
Misery
Or mud
Everyone there has forgotten war
Civilization, too
The old have even forgotten disease
I'm going to live on the moon
In the evening I'll tell stories to the kids
And if they ask what the earth is like
I'll tell them it always spins
Held up by a bogeywomen they call Civilization
Who crushes people like ants

- Felix Morisseau-Leroy
(Translation by Jeffrey Knapp)

On the way home on WLRN, a jazz station, they were playing Diane Krahl's rendition of "The Boulevard of Broken Dreams," an old Nat King Cole favorite. Seemed appropriate.

On a lighter note, Jesse Jackson had a good line on "moral values":
"Everyone believes in prayer in the schools. As long as there are exams on Friday, there will be prayer in the schools.

The Post-Election Hangover

Rx: a hair of the dog that bit you. More politics, in the form of two more pieces published by Inter Press Service.

International Observers Turn the Tables
Electoral observers put the vote under a multi-national magnifying glass
http://www.ipsnews.net/new_nota.asp?idnews=26105

Clear Skies, Some Cloudy Intentions
Long lines and electoral entrepreneurship at the polling places in north Miami
http://www.ipsnews.net/new_nota.asp?idnews=26117

My heart goes out to all the people who worked feverishly for weeks or months on various campaigns and who did not see the results they fervently hoped for. Electoral politics is cruel, but as with baseball, spring training will come around again soon -- only a year or two in this case (I vowed I wouldn't use a sports metaphor, but now that the elections are over ...). Anyway, the issues that motivate people don't stop being important just because some candidate wins or loses.

In the wake of this election, though, I fear for the world. To the many decent people who voted for Bush/Cheney sincerely believing it was the right thing to do, on the long chance that you read this, I ask you to take a deep breath, step back, and try to look at us as the rest of the world sees us. It's hard. It doesn't always make sense. We can ignore the rest of the world and it will rarely bother us (9/11 being the exception that proves the rule), but whenever we sneeze the rest of the world catches malaria, or cholera or AIDS.

We had a huge reservoir of international good will in the wake of 9/11, but now the dam has been busted by smart bombs and that sympathy is gone with the flash flood. Now, in most of the world, most people oppose our government as arrogant, fraudulent and destructive.

There was a period when al Qaeda was concentrated in Afghanistan. but they've long since decentralized and franchised out some of their operations. Meanwhile, our blunderings have given the Qaeda brand tremendous name recognition and prestige in too many places.

Overwhelming military power is about as useful against them now as a surface-to-air missile against a tornado. Their cells may be in Hamburg or Bangkok, Madrid or Jakarta, Rome or Doha, Orlando or Salt Lake City. They have all the explosives and low-level nuclear waste they need to wreak terrible havoc -- they don't need a suitcase nuclear weapon.

But there's no way to invade or bomb a bunch of cities. We can't find any of them without widespread international cooperation. They have become a political and intelligence problem, and continuing to treat them as a military problem has given their recruiting a huge boost. We've become, in effect, their marketing department.

The world is not an action movie. As overwhelming and unchallenged as our military and economic power is, we still cannot impose our political will when most of the world sees our government's actions as contemptuous and counter-productive.

Leadership has to be granted; you can't force it down people's throats. Before you can lead people or countries effectively, you have to listen to them, understand their hopes and fears, and find some common ground. Because it's not leading if they're not following, and nobody will follow if they don't believe it's in their own interest. Could it be that negotiation and cooperation are a big part of leadership?

This probably sounds like fuzzy-headed liberal thinking, doesn't it? Or maybe I'm just making this up? OK, don't take my word for it. Jump on the web and see what foreign newpapers are saying (many of them have English-language editions). Look at foreign polls, which have been widely reported in this country. Talk to foreigners and immigrants, who are all around us even in red states. And don't turn away: look hard at the hostages and the casualties.

If we're not going to make a serious effort to understand the world we bestride like a colossus, we should pick up our feet of clay and head home.

The Little Havana Mambo

Spent some time with the Miami Cuban-American community the past few days. Although much ink has been spilled describing the growing pragmatism of the younger generation and newer arrivals from Cuba, the question is still whether their vote will be 90% for Bush or way down to 75%.

I had a few encounters with both the new pragmatism, which is more concerned about domestic issues than overthrowing Fidel and wants to be free to visit and send money to relatives in Cuba, and with the old hard-liners who are still refighting Playa Giron.

Wrote about both sides for Inter Press Service:

Some Cuban Americans Shift to Kerry
http://www.ipsnews.net/new_nota.asp?idnews=26081

The Bush Appeal
http://www.ipsnews.net/new_nota.asp?idnews=26094

All of the IPS stories on the Food Fight in Florida and other election coverage are on:
U.S. Elections 2004
Superpower at the Polls
http://www.ipsnews.net/new_focus/us_elections/index.asp

Following are a couple of fragments from the cutting-room floor.

My conversation with one woman At the Kerry rally didn't make it into the final edit:

An animated fiftyish woman with curly hair, wearing an assortment of Kerry buttons, approached this reporter and struck up a conversation.

Maggie identified herself as Jewish-Cuban-American, and said her husband is from a French-Jewish family that originally came from Egypt. There used to be a Jewish community in Cuba, she said, but nearly all of its members left after Castro came to power.

Fidel Castro is getting old: what will happen when he's gone? “I think that when Castro dies things are going to change from within in Cuba.”

How would this happen? “From within the party,” she replied. “There are people inside who would like to change things, but while Fidel is alive they’re afraid. When he’s gone they’ll begin to make changes.”

Surprised me that someone here would suggest that change could come from within the Cuban Communist Party. This made some sort of reconcialiation seem a bit more imaginable.

After the Bush rally, I overheard an interesting conversation, which is mentioned in the piece in abbreviated form. Here's the unexpurgated version:

After the rally, at a Cuban sidewalk café in downtown Coconut Grove, this reporter happened to sit next to a large party that appeared to be a Cuban-American family. While they were eating, a thirtyish woman with long blond hair, wearing a white T-shirt with the slogan “Sailing 2 Victory” and a Bush button, came over and struck up a conversation with them in English.

After chatting with them about the rally, she offered: “Did you know that Michael Moore (director of the film "Fahrenheit 9/11" and a prominent Bush critic) is a pederast? He’s a terrible man. Quite a few boys came forward to talk about it, but then they decided not to press charges, maybe because they were doing drugs or alcohol and didn’t want to deal with the law.”

Of the Democrats, she said that they are “the kind of people who want to put our children in preschool when they’re three, when they should be home with their mothers. They’ve always got their hands out. I pray to God Kerry isn’t elected.”

“Jesse Jackson is a pimp for welfare. I pray they won’t kill him, though, because then they’ll make him like Martin Luther King, and you know he cheated on his wife.”

Despite the ambient venom, I did actually see a Dem and a Bushie engage in a rational conversation and then shake hands after the rally. But most of the interactions were more testosterone-driven.

With feelings at this pitch, if the voting doesn't go smoothly tomorrow things could get ugly. Normally I would count on the transformative power of indifference, but this time a lot of people seem to actually care.